Duke @ Illinois, Week 2 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·IllinoisILL0–0·B1G
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Duke a 30% chance.
SeriesIllinois leads 2–1 · Illinois won the last meeting, 45–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ILL
Home-field edge ILL
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Duke @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: DUKE 0, ILL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelILL 70%MarketILL 65%
Market 5 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $70 traded · as of Sep 1, 11:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Duke vs Illinois Stats ComparisonDuke vs Illinois Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 29.4#52 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 23.6#56 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 373.9#80 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 235.8#59 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 138.2#88 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 42.1%#43 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.21#39 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.5%#15 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.0%#121 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 10.4 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 6.3#39 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
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