CFB Vibes

CFB Vibes Model | Track Record

2026 SEASON TO DATE

6-2 STRAIGHT UP · 8 GAMES · BRIER .172
Record6-2Straight-up picks. The pick is whichever team the model gave more than 50%.
Brier score.172How close the win percentages were to what happened. Lower is better; a coin flip on every game scores .250.
Coverage100%Share of games the model could price. 0 left unpriced.

WEEK 0

6-2 · BRIER .172
MATCHUPPICKCVM WIN%FINALRESULT
North CarolinavsTCUTCU72%North Carolina 15, TCU 10MISS
San José State@USCUSC99%USC 42, San José State 26HIT
NC State@VirginiaVirginia59%Virginia 34, NC State 8HIT
Jacksonville State@North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State66%NDSU 33, JXST 7HIT
Sacramento State@Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan71%EMU 28, SAC 17HIT
Hawai'i@StanfordStanford61%Stanford 37, Hawai'i 27HIT
New Mexico State@Florida StateFlorida State97%FSU 34, NMSU 17HIT
Memphis@UNLVUNLV58%Memphis 27, UNLV 21MISS

CALIBRATION

Does a 70% pick win 70% of the time? This table answers that once a probability band holds 75 graded games.

The model prices every game hourly until kickoff; the last number before kickoff is the one graded here, and nothing is re-run after the fact. Where a betting line exists the model's expected margin tracks that line, so the early-season record reads close to the market's. How the model works: Methodology. Not betting advice.