GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·VirginiaUVA4–3·ACC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Virginia opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives Virginia a 53% chance.
SeriesVirginia leads 40–34 · Duke won the last meeting, 27–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) DUKE
Home-field edge UVA
Market lean UVA
Model projection UVA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Duke @ Virginia
Your sims:Sims: UVA 0, DUKE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUVA 53%MarketUVA 54%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $6,501 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADDUKE +1.5UVA −1.5
TOTALOver 47.5Under 47.5
MONEYLINEDUKE +102UVA −122
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Duke vs Virginia Stats ComparisonDuke vs Virginia Stats Comparison
| DukeDUKE | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.7#52 | PPG | 30#65 |
| 16#19 | PA/G | 19.7#38 |
| 442.7#37 | YDS/G | 362.9#90 |
| 233.2#66 | PASS/G | 206#96 |
| 209.5#22 | RUSH/G | 156.9#68 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#97 |
| 46.5%#27 | 3RD DOWN | 33.0%#121 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +5#16 |
| 0.26#23 | OFF PPA | 0.17#57 |
| 0.03#50 | DEF PPA | 0.01#40 |
| 43.6%#68 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.0%#62 |
| 38.9%#50 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.4%#48 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 9.5% |
| 1.32#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#110 |
| 1632 | ELO | 1582 |
| 8.2 | SP+ | 8.5 |
| 7.8#44 | FPI | 5.6#50 |
| 6.4 | SRS | 2.1 |
THE VENUE
Scott StadiumLocationCharlottesville, VA
Capacity61,500
SurfaceGrass
Opened1931
Elevation559 ft
FAN NEWS
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