GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·VirginiaUVA1–0·ACC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Virginia opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives Virginia a 65% chance.
SeriesVirginia leads 40–34 · Duke won the last meeting, 27–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge UVA
Market lean UVA
Model projection UVA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Duke @ Virginia
Your sims:Sims: UVA 0, DUKE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Virginia
Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)
Wvs NC State34–8Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADDUKE +6.5UVA −6.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEDUKE +225UVA −278
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Duke vs Virginia Stats ComparisonDuke vs Virginia Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 19.6#22 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 419.1#29 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 239.1#55 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 179.9#37 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 49.8%#11 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.17#61 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.06#23 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.4%#80 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.9%#18 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 9.5% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#46 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 8.1 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 7.9#32 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Scott StadiumLocationCharlottesville, VA
Capacity61,500
SurfaceGrass
Opened1931
Elevation559 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 8 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
