GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·WisconsinWIS4–2·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
USC opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives USC a 56% chance.
SeriesUSC leads 7–1 · USC won the last meeting, 38–21 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) USC
Home-field edge WIS
Market lean USC
Model projection USC
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
USC @ Wisconsin
Your sims:Sims: WIS 0, USC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUSC 56%MarketUSC 59%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $33,426 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUSC −3WIS +3
TOTALOver 49.5Under 49.5
MONEYLINEUSC −155WIS +130
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
USC vs Wisconsin Stats ComparisonUSC vs Wisconsin Stats Comparison
| USCUSC | WisconsinWIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.4#27 | PPG | 27.5#80 |
| 25.1#80 | PA/G | 16.7#24 |
| 462.4#17 | YDS/G | 351.8#103 |
| 310.1#7 | PASS/G | 199.7#101 |
| 152.3#76 | RUSH/G | 152.2#79 |
| 6.7#20 | YDS/PLAY | 6#59 |
| 51.2%#15 | 3RD DOWN | 42.3%#56 |
| 0.31#12 | OFF PPA | 0.14#73 |
| 51.6%#7 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.8%#106 |
| 41.0%#75 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.6%#24 |
| 59.2% | RET PROD | 31.0% |
| 1.21#82 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.39#11 |
| 1804 | ELO | 1656 |
| 14.4 | SP+ | 10.5 |
| 14.9#17 | FPI | 9.0#39 |
| 9.5 | SRS | 8.1 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| 0.14#106 | DEF PPA | -0.07#11 |
THE VENUE
Camp Randall StadiumLocationMadison, WI
Capacity80,321
SurfaceTurf
Opened1917
Elevation865 ft
FAN NEWS
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