GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Ole MissMISS5–1·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 59% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 6–2 · Ole Miss won the last meeting, 44–23 · 2013
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MISS
Home-field edge TEX
Market lean TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Ole Miss @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, MISS 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelTEX 59%MarketTEX 59%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $307,592 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMISS +3TEX −3
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEMISS +136TEX −162
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Ole Miss vs Texas Stats ComparisonOle Miss vs Texas Stats Comparison
| Ole MissMISS | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 37.5#20 | PPG | 30.2#64 |
| 23.8#72 | PA/G | 17.8#29 |
| 444.5#35 | YDS/G | 361.3#93 |
| 290.7#12 | PASS/G | 226.8#73 |
| 153.8#72 | RUSH/G | 134.5#104 |
| 6.5#28 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#104 |
| 47.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#63 |
| 0.28#17 | OFF PPA | 0.05#105 |
| 51.9%#4 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#72 |
| 42.8%#98 | DEF SUCCESS | 34.6%#17 |
| 50.3% | RET PROD | 72.1% |
| 1.15#108 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#104 |
| 1935 | ELO | 1890 |
| 15.9 | SP+ | 24.4 |
| 18.8#11 | FPI | 23.6#7 |
| 17.6 | SRS | 18.9 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| 0.11#84 | DEF PPA | -0.02#30 |
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
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