Texas Longhorns Football

Texas opens the 2026 season against Texas State on Saturday, Sep 5 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

The Read

Texas opens a 29.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 97% chance.

WIN PROBABILITY

TEX 97% TXST 3%

PROJECTED FINAL

Texas

45

Texas State

15

TEX win
97% One-score game
9%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (Elo) TEX

Home-field edge TEX

Market lean TEX

Model projection TEX

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Sim the game Texas State @ Texas

Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, TXST 0

@#5

Texas State @ Texas

Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 97% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →

#1@#5

Ohio State @ Texas

Sat, Sep 12 · 6:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 54% to win

ABCSIM NOW →

@#5

UTSA @ Texas

Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 95% to win

SIM NOW →

#5@#20

Texas @ Tennessee

Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 66% to win

SIM NOW →

Standings

Full standings →

Place	TEAM	CONF	OVERALL
1	UGAGeorgiaUGA	0–0	0–0
2	TEXTexasTEX	0–0	0–0
3	TA&MTexas A&MTA&M	0–0	0–0
4	MISSOle MissMISS	0–0	0–0
5	OUOklahomaOU	0–0	0–0

Rankings

All rankings →

Rank	AP TOP 25
1	OSUOhio StateOSU
2	OREOregonORE
3	UGAGeorgiaUGA
4	NDNotre DameND
5	TEXTexasTEX

Rank	COACHES
1	OSUOhio StateOSU
2	OREOregonORE
3	UGAGeorgiaUGA
4	TEXTexasTEX
5	NDNotre DameND