GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
BYU opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives BYU a 68% chance.
SeriesBYU leads 4–1 · BYU won the last meeting, 41–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) BYU
Home-field edge UCF
Market lean BYU
Model projection BYU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
BYU @ UCF
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, BYU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBYU 68%MarketBYU 70%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $40,104 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADBYU −6.5UCF +6.5
TOTALOver 43.5Under 43.5
MONEYLINEBYU −258UCF +210
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
BYU vs UCF Stats ComparisonBYU vs UCF Stats Comparison
| BYUBYU | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5#40 | PPG | 31.7#52 |
| 15.2#14 | PA/G | 21.7#50 |
| 421.2#48 | YDS/G | 354.8#99 |
| 214.5#88 | PASS/G | 192.7#106 |
| 206.7#25 | RUSH/G | 162.2#62 |
| 6.8#14 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 56.5%#3 | 3RD DOWN | 35.6%#107 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| 0.28#19 | OFF PPA | 0.12#82 |
| 50.9%#8 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.4%#90 |
| 36.2%#27 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.0%#59 |
| 78.5% | RET PROD | 24.8% |
| 1.18#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.29#36 |
| 1740 | ELO | 1445 |
| 21.5 | SP+ | 4.1 |
| 17.4#14 | FPI | 5.2#51 |
| 18.1 | SRS | 9.9 |
| -0.01#35 | DEF PPA | 0.00#38 |
THE VENUE
FBC Mortgage StadiumLocationOrlando, FL
Capacity44,206
SurfaceGrass
Opened2007
Elevation69 ft
FAN NEWS
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