GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Baylor a 61% chance.
SeriesBaylor leads 2–1 · Baylor won the last meeting, 30–3 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BAY
Home-field edge UCF
Model projection BAY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Baylor @ UCF
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, BAY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBAY 61%MarketBAY 56%
Market 5 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $151 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Baylor vs UCF Stats ComparisonBaylor vs UCF Stats Comparison
| BaylorBAY | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 30#65 | PPG | 31.7#52 |
| 14.7#9 | PA/G | 21.7#50 |
| 436.8#39 | YDS/G | 354.8#99 |
| 284.5#17 | PASS/G | 192.7#106 |
| 152.3#76 | RUSH/G | 162.2#62 |
| 5.3#111 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 39.8%#79 | 3RD DOWN | 35.6%#107 |
| +1#61 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| 0.10#87 | OFF PPA | 0.12#82 |
| 37.4%#126 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.4%#90 |
| 34.4%#13 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.0%#59 |
| 60.2% | RET PROD | 24.8% |
| 1.40#7 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.29#36 |
| 1615 | ELO | 1445 |
| 12.7 | SP+ | 4.1 |
| 10.0#34 | FPI | 5.2#51 |
| 8.0 | SRS | 9.9 |
| -0.09#9 | DEF PPA | 0.00#38 |
THE VENUE
FBC Mortgage StadiumLocationOrlando, FL
Capacity44,206
SurfaceGrass
Opened2007
Elevation69 ft
FAN NEWS
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