GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Georgia opens a 12.5-point favorite in Atlanta. Our model gives Georgia a 71% chance.
SeriesGeorgia leads 58–44–2 · Georgia won the last meeting, 24–20 · 2025
71% One-score game
36% Cover UGA −12.5
40%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: UGA 0, FLA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $16,534 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Florida vs Georgia Stats ComparisonFlorida vs Georgia Stats Comparison
| FloridaFLA | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.6#11 | PPG | 43#2 |
| 28.3#109 | PA/G | 15.9#17 |
| 450.9#26 | YDS/G | 469.9#15 |
| 256.6#42 | PASS/G | 272.1#28 |
| 194.3#35 | RUSH/G | 197.7#31 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 7.7#2 |
| 45.1%#36 | 3RD DOWN | 53.9%#6 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| 0.25#25 | OFF PPA | 0.36#3 |
| 45.7%#44 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.9%#4 |
| 41.7%#84 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#22 |
| 69.1% | RET PROD | 68.7% |
| 1.22#77 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#47 |
| 1643 | ELO | 2023 |
| 11.0 | SP+ | 28.3 |
| 14.3#19 | FPI | 26.7#3 |
| 13.7 | SRS | 20.9 |
| 0.07#68 | DEF PPA | -0.01#36 |
THE VENUE
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