GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·Terms & eligibility
Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Ohio State opens a 7.5-point favorite. Our model gives Ohio State a 68% chance.
SeriesUSC leads 13–10–1 · Ohio State won the last meeting, 24–7 · 2017
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: USC 0, OSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Market 9 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $3,147 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Ohio State vs USC Stats ComparisonOhio State vs USC Stats Comparison
| Ohio StateOSU | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3#12 | PPG | 36.4#27 |
| 13.4#5 | PA/G | 25.1#80 |
| 476.7#12 | YDS/G | 462.4#17 |
| 323.1#6 | PASS/G | 310.1#7 |
| 153.6#73 | RUSH/G | 152.3#76 |
| 7#10 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#20 |
| 44.3%#41 | 3RD DOWN | 51.2%#15 |
| 0.28#18 | OFF PPA | 0.31#12 |
| 49.4%#15 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.6%#7 |
| 34.7%#19 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.0%#75 |
| 68.3% | RET PROD | 59.2% |
| 1.30#30 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#82 |
| 2069 | ELO | 1804 |
| 29.5 | SP+ | 14.4 |
| 28.2#1 | FPI | 14.9#17 |
| 21.5 | SRS | 9.5 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| -0.09#10 | DEF PPA | 0.14#106 |
THE VENUE
Memorial ColiseumFAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Ohio State or USC?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 9 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
