GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·HoustonHOU6–1·B12
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Utah opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives Utah a 68% chance.
SeriesHouston leads 5–0 · Houston won the last meeting, 17–14 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UTAH
Home-field edge UTAH
Market lean UTAH
Model projection UTAH
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Houston @ Utah
Your sims:Sims: UTAH 0, HOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUTAH 68%MarketUTAH 69%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $23,376 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADHOU +6.5UTAH −6.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEHOU +195UTAH −238
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Houston vs Utah Stats ComparisonHouston vs Utah Stats Comparison
| HoustonHOU | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3#12 | PPG | 40.2#8 |
| 21#45 | PA/G | 14.8#12 |
| 484.4#11 | YDS/G | 486.7#9 |
| 264.7#36 | PASS/G | 266.3#33 |
| 219.7#18 | RUSH/G | 220.3#16 |
| 6.9#12 | YDS/PLAY | 6.8#14 |
| 61.4%#1 | 3RD DOWN | 53.2%#8 |
| +5#16 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| 0.36#2 | OFF PPA | 0.27#20 |
| 54.8%#1 | OFF SUCCESS | 49.3%#17 |
| 41.0%#75 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.5%#8 |
| 81.2% | RET PROD | 67.9% |
| 1.11#127 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.29#35 |
| 1610 | ELO | 1901 |
| 15.2 | SP+ | 23.5 |
| 14.8#18 | FPI | 17.4#13 |
| 17.6 | SRS | 18.5 |
| 0.12#89 | DEF PPA | -0.03#24 |
THE VENUE
Rice-Eccles StadiumLocationSalt Lake City, UT
Capacity51,444
SurfaceTurf
Opened1998
Elevation4,631 ft
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