GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Miami opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Miami a 94% chance.
SeriesMiami leads 30–12–1 · Miami won the last meeting, 38–7 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MIA win
94% One-score game
14% Cover MIA −20.5
59%
94% One-score game
14% Cover MIA −20.5
59%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MIA
Home-field edge MIA
Market lean MIA
Model projection MIA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Pittsburgh @ Miami
Your sims:Sims: MIA 0, PITT 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Pittsburgh
Lat Boston College27–21Lvs North Carolina21–17Wat Virginia Tech35–33
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMIA 94%MarketMIA 93%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $141,430 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADPITT +20.5MIA −20.5
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINEPITT +950MIA −1650
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Pittsburgh vs Miami Stats ComparisonPittsburgh vs Miami Stats Comparison
| PittsburghPITT | MiamiMIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.9#45 | PPG | 48.5#1 |
| 16.4#23 | PA/G | 14#7 |
| 450.1#28 | YDS/G | 559.5#2 |
| 284.6#16 | PASS/G | 333#3 |
| 165.6#57 | RUSH/G | 226.5#13 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 8.1#1 |
| 42.9%#51 | 3RD DOWN | 51.6%#13 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| 0.17#61 | OFF PPA | 0.39#1 |
| 45.5%#46 | OFF SUCCESS | 53.9%#2 |
| 33.1%#6 | DEF SUCCESS | 34.5%#15 |
| 39.7% | RET PROD | 36.9% |
| 1.15#109 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#32 |
| 1624 | ELO | 1982 |
| 10.5 | SP+ | 27.8 |
| 9.2#37 | FPI | 26.5#4 |
| 6.5 | SRS | 20.0 |
| -0.04#21 | DEF PPA | -0.04#21 |
THE VENUE
Hard Rock StadiumLocationMiami Gardens, FL
Capacity64,767
SurfaceTurf
Opened1987
Elevation9 ft
FAN NEWS
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