GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·MIA radioHurricane Sports Network
UNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Miami a 88% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 16–11 · North Carolina won the last meeting, 41–31 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) MIA
Home-field edge UNC
Model projection MIA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Miami @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, MIA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMIA 88%MarketMIA 81%
Market 7 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $414 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Miami vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonMiami vs UNC Stats Comparison
| MiamiMIA | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5#1 | PPG | 23.5#99 |
| 14#7 | PA/G | 19.2#34 |
| 559.5#2 | YDS/G | 329.7#117 |
| 333#3 | PASS/G | 213.5#89 |
| 226.5#13 | RUSH/G | 116.2#120 |
| 8.1#1 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#82 |
| 51.6%#13 | 3RD DOWN | 37.3%#87 |
| 0.39#1 | OFF PPA | 0.10#89 |
| 53.9%#2 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.4%#58 |
| 34.5%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.5%#94 |
| 36.9% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 1.30#32 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.11#125 |
| 1982 | ELO | 1470 |
| 27.8 | SP+ | 4.9 |
| 26.5#4 | FPI | 8.7#41 |
| 20.0 | SRS | 9.5 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | −2#91 |
| -0.04#21 | DEF PPA | 0.02#46 |
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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