GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·Notre DameND6–1
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Notre Dame opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives Notre Dame a 66% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 18–9–1 · Miami won the last meeting, 27–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ND
Home-field edge ND
Market lean ND
Model projection ND
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Miami @ Notre Dame
Your sims:Sims: ND 0, MIA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMIA +6.5ND −6.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEMIA +195ND −238
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Miami vs Notre Dame Stats ComparisonMiami vs Notre Dame Stats Comparison
| MiamiMIA | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5#1 | PPG | 41.1#6 |
| 14#7 | PA/G | 13.4#5 |
| 559.5#2 | YDS/G | 445.1#34 |
| 333#3 | PASS/G | 261.7#38 |
| 226.5#13 | RUSH/G | 183.4#44 |
| 8.1#1 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#28 |
| 51.6%#13 | 3RD DOWN | 44.0%#44 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | +14#2 |
| 0.39#1 | OFF PPA | 0.34#6 |
| 53.9%#2 | OFF SUCCESS | 50.9%#8 |
| 34.5%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.7%#25 |
| 36.9% | RET PROD | 51.2% |
| 1.30#32 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#100 |
| 1982 | ELO | 2082 |
| 27.8 | SP+ | 28.0 |
| 26.5#4 | FPI | 27.9#2 |
| 20.0 | SRS | 22.4 |
| -0.04#21 | DEF PPA | -0.05#14 |
THE VENUE
Notre Dame StadiumLocationNotre Dame, IN
Capacity80,795
SurfaceTurf
Opened1930
Elevation730 ft
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