GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·MSST radioBulldog Sports Network
TEX radioLonghorn Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Texas a 83% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 4–2 · Texas won the last meeting, 45–38 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TEX
Home-field edge TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mississippi State @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelTEX 83%MarketTEX 79%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $5,853 traded · as of Oct 20, 11:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mississippi State vs Texas Stats ComparisonMSST vs Texas Stats Comparison
| Mississippi StateMSST | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.5#48 | PPG | 30.2#64 |
| 28.5#111 | PA/G | 17.8#29 |
| 454.3#22 | YDS/G | 361.3#93 |
| 277.8#22 | PASS/G | 226.8#73 |
| 176.5#50 | RUSH/G | 134.5#103 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#104 |
| 46.2%#32 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#63 |
| 0.20#44 | OFF PPA | 0.05#105 |
| 47.8%#32 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#72 |
| 44.8%#116 | DEF SUCCESS | 34.6%#17 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 72.1% |
| 1.24#65 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#105 |
| 1558 | ELO | 1890 |
| 12.6 | SP+ | 24.4 |
| 9.1#38 | FPI | 23.6#7 |
| 9.6 | SRS | 18.9 |
| −3#100 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| 0.12#97 | DEF PPA | -0.02#30 |
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
FAN NEWS
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