GAME DAY
Week 9 · TBDMSST radioBulldog Sports Network
TEX radioLonghorn Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Texas a 91% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 4–2 · Texas won the last meeting, 45–38 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TEX
Home-field edge TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mississippi State @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mississippi State vs Texas Stats ComparisonMSST vs Texas Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Mississippi StateMSST | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4#42 | PPG | 30.5#41 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 20.3#28 |
| 399.2#56 | YDS/G | 388.7#69 |
| 241.4#54 | PASS/G | 250.7#44 |
| 157.8#68 | RUSH/G | 138#90 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 42.7%#38 | 3RD DOWN | 39.2%#75 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.18#57 |
| 0.20#107 | DEF PPA | 0.10#40 |
| 42.0%#73 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.5%#93 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.2%#43 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 72.1% |
| 1.28#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#13 |
| 4.8 | SP+ | 22.8 |
| 4.1#49 | FPI | 26.9#2 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Mississippi State or Texas?
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