GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDND radioNotre Dame Radio Network
UNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Notre Dame opens a 23.5-point favorite. Our model gives Notre Dame a 93% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 21–2 · Notre Dame won the last meeting, 45–32 · 2022
What's driving the model
Home-field edge UNC
Market lean ND
Model projection ND
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, ND 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADND −23.5UNC +23.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINEND −2100UNC +1100
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonNotre Dame vs UNC Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Notre DameND | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 42#2 | PPG | 19.2#120 |
| 17.6#10 | PA/G | 24.5#65 |
| 459.5#12 | YDS/G | 289.1#131 |
| 255.1#37 | PASS/G | 183.9#111 |
| 204.4#17 | RUSH/G | 105.2#123 |
| 7.5#1 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| 48.1%#13 | 3RD DOWN | 36.9%#94 |
| 0.33#6 | OFF PPA | 0.06#122 |
| 0.02#9 | DEF PPA | 0.15#64 |
| 46.3%#24 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.8%#112 |
| 36.3%#14 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4%#66 |
| 51.2% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 1.50#1 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| 26.5 | SP+ | 3.5 |
| 25.9#3 | FPI | 4.9#42 |
| +13#7 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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