GAME DAY
Week 13 · TBDNCSU radioWolfpack Sports Network
UNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
NC State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives NC State a 54% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State won the last meeting, 42–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NCSU
Home-field edge UNC
Market lean NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
NC State @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, NCSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3NC State
NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)
Lat Virginia34–8NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNCSU −1.5UNC +1.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINENCSU −118UNC −102
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
NC State vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonNC State vs UNC Stats Comparison
| NC StateNCSU | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | PPG | 15 |
| 34 | PA/G | 10 |
| 168 | YDS/G | 322 |
| 92 | PASS/G | 232 |
| 76 | RUSH/G | 90 |
| 3.3 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6 |
| 30.8% | 3RD DOWN | 27.3% |
| 31.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 46.6% |
| 47.9% | DEF SUCCESS | 33.3% |
| 59.9% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 0.53 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.92 |
| 5.7 | SP+ | 3.5 |
| 3.7#51 | FPI | 4.9#42 |
| −2 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| -0.14 | OFF PPA | 0.11 |
| 0.27 | DEF PPA | -0.05 |
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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