GAME DAY
Week 13 · TBDNCSU radioWolfpack Sports Network
UNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
NC State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives NC State a 54% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State won the last meeting, 42–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NCSU
Home-field edge UNC
Market lean NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
NC State @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, NCSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNCSU −1.5UNC +1.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINENCSU −118UNC −102
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
NC State vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonNC State vs UNC Stats Comparison
| NC StateNCSU | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#44 | PPG | 23.5#99 |
| 27.7#104 | PA/G | 19.2#34 |
| 426.3#43 | YDS/G | 329.7#117 |
| 257.8#41 | PASS/G | 213.5#89 |
| 168.5#54 | RUSH/G | 116.2#120 |
| 6#57 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#82 |
| 51.7%#12 | 3RD DOWN | 37.3%#87 |
| 0.19#48 | OFF PPA | 0.10#89 |
| 0.16#110 | DEF PPA | 0.02#46 |
| 45.6%#45 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.4%#58 |
| 42.0%#89 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.5%#94 |
| 59.9% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 1.24#65 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.11#125 |
| 1471 | ELO | 1470 |
| 1.1#62 | FPI | 8.7#41 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | −2#91 |
| -1.3 | SP+ | 4.9 |
| -2.2 | SRS | 9.5 |
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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