GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·New MexicoUNM5–1·MWC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico a 78% chance.
SeriesNevada leads 6–4–1 · New Mexico won the last meeting, 24–22 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNM
Home-field edge NEV
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico @ Nevada
Your sims:Sims: NEV 0, UNM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico vs Nevada Stats ComparisonNew Mexico vs Nevada Stats Comparison
| New MexicoUNM | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.7#10 | PPG | 26#88 |
| 10.5#1 | PA/G | 23.5#66 |
| 377.5#82 | YDS/G | 361.8#92 |
| 163#127 | PASS/G | 171.8#122 |
| 214.5#21 | RUSH/G | 190#39 |
| 5.9#64 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#82 |
| 41.6%#65 | 3RD DOWN | 37.2%#89 |
| 0.16#63 | OFF PPA | 0.08#97 |
| 41.8%#85 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.2%#100 |
| 32.4%#1 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.3%#53 |
| 58.2% | RET PROD | 35.5% |
| 1.27#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#32 |
| 1677 | ELO | 1420 |
| +17#1 | TO MARGIN | −8#134 |
| -0.15#2 | DEF PPA | 0.13#101 |
| 12.3 | SP+ | -4.3 |
| 7.8#43 | FPI | -8.4#98 |
| 7.2 | SRS | -8.5 |
THE VENUE
Mackay StadiumLocationReno, NV
Capacity27,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation4,615 ft
FAN NEWS
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