GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·MemphisMEM5–2·AAC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Memphis opens a 10.5-point favorite. Our model gives Memphis a 74% chance.
SeriesEast Carolina leads 18–8 · East Carolina won the last meeting, 31–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MEM
Home-field edge MEM
Market lean MEM
Model projection MEM
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
East Carolina @ Memphis
Your sims:Sims: MEM 0, ECU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3East Carolina
Lat UAB30–17 (OT)Wvs Rice28–12Wvs North Carolina Central42–9
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMEM 74%MarketMEM 78%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $8,821 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADECU +10.5MEM −10.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEECU +320MEM −410
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
East Carolina vs Memphis Stats ComparisonECU vs Memphis Stats Comparison
| East CarolinaECU | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5#99 | PPG | 35.4#35 |
| 23.8#72 | PA/G | 22.3#58 |
| 338.5#114 | YDS/G | 511.7#5 |
| 183.7#114 | PASS/G | 274.9#25 |
| 154.8#70 | RUSH/G | 236.9#8 |
| 5.2#114 | YDS/PLAY | 7.4#4 |
| 31.3%#125 | 3RD DOWN | 45.1%#36 |
| 37.8%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.7%#21 |
| 34.2%#12 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.0%#43 |
| 13.6% | RET PROD | 5.6% |
| 1.21#83 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#64 |
| 1432 | ELO | 1623 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | +2#47 |
| -0.00#123 | OFF PPA | 0.19#49 |
| -0.04#17 | DEF PPA | 0.05#63 |
| -1.3 | SP+ | 7.6 |
| -5.2#90 | FPI | 3.0#57 |
| -11.5 | SRS | 0.6 |
THE VENUE
Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumLocationMemphis, TN
Capacity58,325
SurfaceTurf
Opened1965
Elevation297 ft
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