GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
SHSU radioBearkat Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Sam Houston a 65% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 since 2023 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SHSU
Home-field edge SHSU
Model projection SHSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston
Your sims:Sims: SHSU 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Wvs Delaware33–30Lat Kansas55–0Lat Jacksonville State23–13
Sam Houston
Lvs Western Kentucky16–3Lat Liberty35–3Lat Texas Tech49–14
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston Stats ComparisonMTSU vs Sam Houston Stats Comparison
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Sam HoustonSHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.8#103 | PPG | 19.5#123 |
| 28.3#109 | PA/G | 24.5#76 |
| 321.5#122 | YDS/G | 342#107 |
| 200.7#98 | PASS/G | 247#51 |
| 120.8#115 | RUSH/G | 95#134 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#114 |
| 26.2%#137 | 3RD DOWN | 37.2%#89 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | +1#61 |
| 0.22#123 | DEF PPA | 0.11#84 |
| 39.2%#113 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.7%#118 |
| 49.1%#133 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#57 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 57.7% |
| 1.26#52 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#53 |
| 1149 | ELO | 1104 |
| 0.13#80 | OFF PPA | -0.00#122 |
| -19.5 | SP+ | -16.5 |
| -18.3#130 | FPI | -16.7#127 |
| -16.9 | SRS | -12.2 |
THE VENUE
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumLocationHuntsville, TX
Capacity14,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1986
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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