GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·Notre DameND0–0
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Notre Dame opens a 17.5-point favorite. Our model gives Notre Dame a 87% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 10–3 · Notre Dame won the last meeting, 59–6 · 1989
What's driving the model
Home-field edge ND
Market lean ND
Model projection ND
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
SMU @ Notre Dame
Your sims:Sims: ND 0, SMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSMU +17.5ND −17.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINESMU +625ND −950
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
SMU vs Notre Dame Stats ComparisonSMU vs Notre Dame Stats Comparison
2025 stats| SMUSMU | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2#26 | PPG | 42#2 |
| 20.5#30 | PA/G | 17.6#10 |
| 417#30 | YDS/G | 459.5#12 |
| 283.1#14 | PASS/G | 255.1#37 |
| 133.9#95 | RUSH/G | 204.4#17 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 7.5#1 |
| 40.8%#56 | 3RD DOWN | 48.1%#13 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +13#7 |
| 0.25#22 | OFF PPA | 0.33#6 |
| 0.03#11 | DEF PPA | 0.02#9 |
| 43.3%#54 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.3%#24 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.3%#14 |
| 56.9% | RET PROD | 51.2% |
| 1.37#10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.50#1 |
| 12.1 | SP+ | 26.5 |
| 11.1#24 | FPI | 25.9#3 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Notre Dame StadiumLocationNotre Dame, IN
Capacity80,795
SurfaceTurf
Opened1930
Elevation730 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 12 GAMES
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