GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·Notre DameND6–1
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Notre Dame opens a 17.5-point favorite. Our model gives Notre Dame a 87% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 10–3 · Notre Dame won the last meeting, 59–6 · 1989
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ND
Home-field edge ND
Market lean ND
Model projection ND
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
SMU @ Notre Dame
Your sims:Sims: ND 0, SMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSMU +17.5ND −17.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINESMU +750ND −1200
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 12:07 PM ETNot gambling advice
SMU vs Notre Dame Stats ComparisonSMU vs Notre Dame Stats Comparison
| SMUSMU | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7#46 | PPG | 41.1#6 |
| 21.3#47 | PA/G | 13.4#5 |
| 470.8#14 | YDS/G | 445.1#35 |
| 329.3#5 | PASS/G | 261.7#38 |
| 141.5#93 | RUSH/G | 183.4#44 |
| 6.8#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#28 |
| 48.1%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 44.0%#43 |
| 0.21#40 | OFF PPA | 0.34#6 |
| 48.2%#25 | OFF SUCCESS | 50.9%#8 |
| 37.7%#43 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.7%#25 |
| 56.9% | RET PROD | 51.2% |
| 1.27#46 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#100 |
| 1699 | ELO | 2082 |
| 12.8 | SP+ | 28.0 |
| 9.8#35 | FPI | 27.9#2 |
| 4.1 | SRS | 22.4 |
| −3#100 | TO MARGIN | +14#2 |
| 0.06#64 | DEF PPA | -0.05#14 |
THE VENUE
Notre Dame StadiumLocationNotre Dame, IN
Capacity80,795
SurfaceTurf
Opened1930
Elevation730 ft
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