GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 58% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico State leads 4–3 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 31–24 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MTSU win
42% One-score game
38%
42% One-score game
38%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MTSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New Mexico StateNMSU | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 22.4#107 |
| 27.6#88 | PA/G | 30.9#115 |
| 327.8#115 | YDS/G | 371#82 |
| 250.3#45 | PASS/G | 264.9#28 |
| 77.4#136 | RUSH/G | 106.1#121 |
| 4.8#127 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 37.1%#93 |
| 0.03#128 | OFF PPA | 0.14#85 |
| 0.10#41 | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| 36.4%#124 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.2%#70 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -26.5 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -16.1#130 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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