GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 53% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico State leads 4–3 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 31–24 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MTSU win
47% One-score game
39%
47% One-score game
39%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
Lat Florida International22–3Wvs Western Kentucky34–13Lvs New Mexico42–18
Middle Tennessee
Wvs Delaware33–30Lat Kansas55–0Lat Jacksonville State23–13
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MTSU Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.7#97 | PPG | 22.8#103 |
| 25.7#88 | PA/G | 28.3#109 |
| 368.5#85 | YDS/G | 321.5#122 |
| 225.8#74 | PASS/G | 200.7#98 |
| 142.7#90 | RUSH/G | 120.8#114 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 41.0%#70 | 3RD DOWN | 26.2%#137 |
| 0.02#116 | OFF PPA | 0.13#79 |
| 0.05#61 | DEF PPA | 0.22#123 |
| 40.8%#94 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.2%#112 |
| 40.0%#59 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.1%#134 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.38#13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#51 |
| 1249 | ELO | 1149 |
| −5#121 | TO MARGIN | +4#22 |
| -13.7 | SP+ | -19.5 |
| -13.2#116 | FPI | -18.3#130 |
| -13.4 | SRS | -16.9 |
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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