GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Air ForceAF5–1·MWC
WyomingWYO4–3·MWC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Air Force opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Air Force a 64% chance.
SeriesAir Force leads 32–28–3 · Air Force won the last meeting, 24–21 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
WYO win
36% One-score game
38% Cover AF −4.5
52%
36% One-score game
38% Cover AF −4.5
52%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) AF
Home-field edge WYO
Market lean AF
Model projection AF
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Air Force @ Wyoming
Your sims:Sims: WYO 0, AF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Wyoming
Wvs Northern Illinois41–23Wat San José State16–13 (OT)Lat North Dakota State28–0
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelAF 64%MarketAF 66%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $4,731 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADAF −4.5WYO +4.5
TOTALOver 45.5Under 45.5
MONEYLINEAF −205WYO +170
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Air Force vs Wyoming Stats ComparisonAir Force vs Wyoming Stats Comparison
| Air ForceAF | WyomingWYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8#62 | PPG | 18.3#127 |
| 19.7#38 | PA/G | 20.9#43 |
| 407#57 | YDS/G | 331.9#116 |
| 64#138 | PASS/G | 146.4#133 |
| 343#2 | RUSH/G | 185.4#42 |
| 5.7#82 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#97 |
| 52.9%#10 | 3RD DOWN | 33.8%#114 |
| 0.25#27 | OFF PPA | 0.10#88 |
| 0.03#47 | DEF PPA | 0.14#103 |
| 49.3%#17 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#46 |
| 37.4%#38 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.2%#113 |
| 57.4% | RET PROD | 23.0% |
| 1.06#136 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.05#137 |
| 1484 | ELO | 1320 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | −7#131 |
| 1.4 | SP+ | -13.8 |
| -2.1#79 | FPI | -15.4#125 |
| -2.1 | SRS | -15.8 |
THE VENUE
War Memorial StadiumLocationLaramie, WY
Capacity29,181
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation7,218 ft
FAN NEWS
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