GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·UConnCONN3–3
Air ForceAF5–1·MWC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Air Force a 65% chance.
SeriesUConn leads 1–0 · UConn won the last meeting, 26–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) AF
Home-field edge AF
Model projection AF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UConn @ Air Force
Your sims:Sims: AF 0, CONN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelAF 65%MarketAF 75%
Market 10 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $0 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UConn vs Air Force Stats ComparisonUConn vs Air Force Stats Comparison
| UConnCONN | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.7#29 | PPG | 30.8#62 |
| 25.2#81 | PA/G | 19.7#38 |
| 451.8#24 | YDS/G | 407#57 |
| 256.5#43 | PASS/G | 64#138 |
| 195.3#33 | RUSH/G | 343#2 |
| 6.9#12 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#82 |
| 41.9%#58 | 3RD DOWN | 52.9%#10 |
| 0.22#35 | OFF PPA | 0.25#27 |
| 0.08#74 | DEF PPA | 0.03#47 |
| 44.9%#52 | OFF SUCCESS | 49.3%#17 |
| 42.3%#92 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#38 |
| 2.3% | RET PROD | 57.4% |
| 1.40#7 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.06#136 |
| 1483 | ELO | 1484 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -1.3 | SP+ | 1.4 |
| -6.0#93 | FPI | -2.1#79 |
| -3.8 | SRS | -2.1 |
THE VENUE
Falcon StadiumLocationColorado Springs, CO
Capacity46,692
SurfaceTurf
Opened1962
Elevation6,643 ft
FAN NEWS
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