GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives UNLV a 76% chance.
SeriesUNLV leads 5–1 · UNLV won the last meeting, 58–27 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNLV
Home-field edge UNT
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UNLV @ North Texas
Your sims:Sims: UNT 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- UNLV57%
North Texas46%
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 76%MarketUNLV 57%
Market 19 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $88 traded · as of Sep 1, 11:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UNLV vs North Texas Stats ComparisonUNLV vs North Texas Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UNLVUNLV | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.1#17 | PPG | 45.1#1 |
| 28#89 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 446.8#21 | YDS/G | 511.4#1 |
| 250.9#42 | PASS/G | 317.3#2 |
| 195.9#23 | RUSH/G | 194.1#25 |
| 6.8#11 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2#3 |
| 45.2%#28 | 3RD DOWN | 45.9%#24 |
| +7#21 | TO MARGIN | +9#14 |
| 0.30#17 | OFF PPA | 0.35#2 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 46.6%#23 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.6%#2 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0%#77 |
| 15.4% | RET PROD | 2.5% |
| 1.36#14 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31#33 |
| 3.6 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| 1.8#58 | FPI | -6.4#90 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DATCU StadiumLocationDenton, TX
Capacity30,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation652 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about UNLV or North Texas?
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