GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDUNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
DUKE radioDuke Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Duke opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Duke a 62% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 63–38–4 · Duke won the last meeting, 32–25 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge DUKE
Market lean DUKE
Model projection DUKE
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
North Carolina @ Duke
Your sims:Sims: DUKE 0, UNC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUNC +4.5DUKE −4.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEUNC +185DUKE −225
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
North Carolina vs Duke Stats ComparisonUNC vs Duke Stats Comparison
2025 stats| North CarolinaUNC | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2#120 | PPG | 34.6#16 |
| 24.5#65 | PA/G | 29.4#98 |
| 289.1#131 | YDS/G | 423.6#25 |
| 183.9#111 | PASS/G | 285.4#11 |
| 105.2#123 | RUSH/G | 138.2#88 |
| 4.9#120 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 36.9%#94 | 3RD DOWN | 39.0%#77 |
| 0.06#122 | OFF PPA | 0.24#24 |
| 0.15#64 | DEF PPA | 0.22#113 |
| 38.8%#112 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 41.4%#66 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.5%#96 |
| 27.8% | RET PROD | 17.1% |
| 1.16#116 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#26 |
| 3.5 | SP+ | 5.6 |
| 4.9#42 | FPI | 3.5#52 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +10#11 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Wallace Wade StadiumLocationDurham, NC
Capacity40,004
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation338 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about North Carolina or Duke?
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