GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Georgia State opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives Georgia State a 55% chance.
SeriesArkansas State leads 7–2 since 2013 · Arkansas State won the last meeting, 27–20 · 2024
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: ARST 0, GAST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $1,108 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Georgia State vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonGAST vs ARST Stats Comparison
| Georgia StateGAST | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#26 | PPG | 27.4#81 |
| 24#74 | PA/G | 26.6#95 |
| 452.7#23 | YDS/G | 366#87 |
| 246.7#52 | PASS/G | 233#67 |
| 206#26 | RUSH/G | 133#106 |
| 6.5#28 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#65 |
| 47.5%#26 | 3RD DOWN | 45.1%#36 |
| 0.21#39 | OFF PPA | 0.16#65 |
| 0.02#41 | DEF PPA | 0.14#105 |
| 47.3%#34 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.2%#25 |
| 37.2%#37 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.0%#117 |
| 46.5% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.22#79 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.12#122 |
| 1376 | ELO | 1321 |
| −4#111 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -4.8 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -5.9#92 | FPI | -8.5#99 |
| 0.6 | SRS | -7.7 |
THE VENUE
Centennial Bank StadiumFAN NEWS
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