GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·ULM radioWarhawk Sports Network
ARST radioRed Wolves Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Arkansas State a 90% chance.
SeriesArkansas State leads 26–9 · UL Monroe won the last meeting, 28–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ARST
Home-field edge ARST
Model projection ARST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State
Your sims:Sims: ARST 0, ULM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UL Monroe
UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)
Lat Louisiana30–27 (OT)Lat Texas State31–14Lvs South Alabama26–14UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)Arkansas State
Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Wvs Missouri State34–28Wat App State30–29Lvs Louisiana34–30Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonUL Monroe vs ARST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UL MonroeULM | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 16.6#130 | PPG | 25.2#87 |
| 31.9#119 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 322.2#118 | YDS/G | 383.3#74 |
| 159.6#124 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 162.6#63 | RUSH/G | 123.5#108 |
| 5.3#97 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 32.7%#124 | 3RD DOWN | 39.3%#74 |
| 0.08#115 | OFF PPA | 0.09#110 |
| 0.19#90 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 37.0%#121 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.9%#75 |
| 40.7%#57 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.6%#97 |
| 38.7% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.37#11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#121 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -28.9 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| -19.3#138 | FPI | -9.2#107 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Centennial Bank StadiumLocationJonesboro, AR
Capacity30,382
SurfaceTurf
Opened1974
Elevation294 ft
FAN NEWS
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