GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 74% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Sam Houston won the last meeting, 20–17 · 2006
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) MOST
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MOST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Sam Houston @ Missouri State
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, SHSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sam Houston
Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)
Lvs Florida International56–16Lat Middle Tennessee31–17Wvs Delaware26–23Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs MOST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Sam HoustonSHSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8#127 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 316.8#121 | YDS/G | 393.4#64 |
| 184#110 | PASS/G | 279.7#16 |
| 132.8#98 | RUSH/G | 113.7#118 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 22.2%#136 | 3RD DOWN | 36.3%#101 |
| 0.00#132 | OFF PPA | 0.17#66 |
| 0.24#118 | DEF PPA | 0.24#122 |
| 36.3%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3%#110 |
| 47.9%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.49#2 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -26.0 | SP+ | -19.1 |
| -18.4#136 | FPI | -10.3#110 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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