GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 53% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 since 2004 · Sam Houston won the last meeting, 20–17 · 2006
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SHSU
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MOST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Sam Houston @ Missouri State
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, SHSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sam Houston
Lvs Western Kentucky16–3Lat Liberty35–3Lat Texas Tech49–14
Missouri State
Wvs Kennesaw State24–21Lat Western Kentucky34–13Lat SMU34–24
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMOST 53%MarketMOST 60%
Market 7 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $145 traded · as of Oct 20, 8:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs MOST Stats Comparison
| Sam HoustonSHSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5#123 | PPG | 22.2#108 |
| 24.5#76 | PA/G | 30.5#116 |
| 342#107 | YDS/G | 359.5#95 |
| 247#51 | PASS/G | 224.7#76 |
| 95#134 | RUSH/G | 134.8#101 |
| 5.2#114 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 37.2%#89 | 3RD DOWN | 35.1%#109 |
| 0.11#85 | DEF PPA | 0.23#125 |
| 39.0%#114 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.6%#108 |
| 39.6%#57 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.3%#135 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.26#54 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.23#70 |
| 1104 | ELO | 1233 |
| +1#61 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| 0.00#122 | OFF PPA | 0.06#102 |
| -16.5 | SP+ | -19.5 |
| -16.7#127 | FPI | -14.7#123 |
| -12.2 | SRS | -15.6 |
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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