GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k Sims
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UCF
Home-field edge UCF
Model projection UCF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Georgia State @ UCF
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, GAST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Georgia State vs UCF Stats ComparisonGAST vs UCF Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Georgia StateGAST | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 19.8#119 | PPG | 24.3#90 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 23.6#56 |
| 378.2#77 | YDS/G | 378.9#76 |
| 254.4#38 | PASS/G | 220.8#75 |
| 123.8#107 | RUSH/G | 158.2#67 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 38.6%#83 | 3RD DOWN | 33.9%#117 |
| 0.13#91 | OFF PPA | 0.15#83 |
| 0.28#133 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
| 40.4%#95 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.9%#100 |
| 46.2%#125 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.3%#80 |
| 46.5% | RET PROD | 24.8% |
| 1.25#61 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#11 |
| −11#127 | TO MARGIN | −4#98 |
| -29.3 | SP+ | 1.7 |
| -15.2#127 | FPI | 2.1#57 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
FBC Mortgage StadiumLocationOrlando, FL
Capacity44,206
SurfaceGrass
Opened2007
Elevation69 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Georgia State or UCF?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 3 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
