GAME DAY
Week 4 · TBDTCU radioHorned Frogs Sports Network
UCF radioKnights Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives TCU a 59% chance.
SeriesUCF leads 1–0 · UCF won the last meeting, 35–34 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TCU
Home-field edge UCF
Model projection TCU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
TCU @ UCF
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, TCU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3TCU
TCU2026: 0–1 (0–0 B12)
Lvs North Carolina15–10TCU2026: 0–1 (0–0 B12)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
TCU vs UCF Stats ComparisonTCU vs UCF Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TCUTCU | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.7#40 | PPG | 24.3#90 |
| 25.3#72 | PA/G | 23.6#56 |
| 421.8#27 | YDS/G | 378.9#76 |
| 290.1#9 | PASS/G | 220.8#75 |
| 131.8#99 | RUSH/G | 158.2#67 |
| 6.1#31 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 47.4%#14 | 3RD DOWN | 33.9%#117 |
| 0.20#48 | OFF PPA | 0.15#83 |
| 0.14#59 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
| 44.5%#44 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.9%#100 |
| 40.3%#51 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.3%#80 |
| 22.4% | RET PROD | 24.8% |
| 1.26#50 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#11 |
| 9.4 | SP+ | 1.7 |
| 6.4#38 | FPI | 2.1#57 |
| +1#66 | TO MARGIN | −4#98 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
FBC Mortgage StadiumLocationOrlando, FL
Capacity44,206
SurfaceGrass
Opened2007
Elevation69 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about TCU or UCF?
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MORE WEEK 4 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
