GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·TennesseeTENN0–0·SEC
TEX radioLonghorn Radio Network
TENN radioVol Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 66% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 2–1 · Texas won the last meeting, 36–13 · 1968
What's driving the model
Home-field edge TENN
Market lean TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Texas @ Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: TENN 0, TEX 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTEX −6.5TENN +6.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINETEX −265TENN +215
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Texas vs Tennessee Stats ComparisonTexas vs Tennessee Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TexasTEX | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.5#41 | PPG | 39.8#6 |
| 20.3#28 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 388.7#69 | YDS/G | 469#7 |
| 250.7#44 | PASS/G | 292.8#6 |
| 138#90 | RUSH/G | 176.2#47 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#18 |
| 39.2%#75 | 3RD DOWN | 50.3%#9 |
| +14#4 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| 0.18#57 | OFF PPA | 0.32#8 |
| 0.10#40 | DEF PPA | 0.15#60 |
| 40.5%#93 | OFF SUCCESS | 50.4%#4 |
| 39.2%#43 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.6%#110 |
| 72.1% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.37#13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#59 |
| 22.8 | SP+ | 17.3 |
| 26.9#2 | FPI | 15.1#16 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Neyland StadiumLocationKnoxville, TN
Capacity102,455
SurfaceGrass
Opened1921
Elevation892 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
