GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Hawai'iHAW0–1·MWC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UNLV opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives UNLV a 56% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 16–16 · UNLV won the last meeting, 38–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNLV
Home-field edge HAW
Market lean UNLV
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UNLV @ Hawai'i
Your sims:Sims: HAW 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Hawai'i
Hawai'i2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lat Stanford37–27Hawai'i2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 56%MarketUNLV 56%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $18,562 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUNLV −3HAW +3
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEUNLV −142HAW +120
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
UNLV vs Hawai'i Stats ComparisonUNLV vs Hawai'i Stats Comparison
| UNLVUNLV | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | PPG | 27 |
| 27 | PA/G | 37 |
| 460 | YDS/G | 322 |
| 291 | PASS/G | 276 |
| 169 | RUSH/G | 46 |
| 5.8 | YDS/PLAY | 4.4 |
| 20.0% | 3RD DOWN | 41.2% |
| 0.09 | OFF PPA | 0.05 |
| 0.29 | DEF PPA | 0.33 |
| 33.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 35.5% |
| 47.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 45.2% |
| 15.4% | RET PROD | 64.5% |
| 1.46 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26 |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| 3.6 | SP+ | -2.6 |
| 1.8#58 | FPI | -2.4#76 |
THE VENUE
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexLocationHonolulu, HI
Capacity15,194
SurfaceTurf
Opened2015
Elevation66 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about UNLV or Hawai'i?
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
