GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas opens a 29.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 97% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 1–0 · Texas won the last meeting, 36–0 · 1930
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TEX
Home-field edge TEX
Market lean TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Texas State @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTXST +29.5TEX −29.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINETXST +2500TEX −9000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Texas State vs Texas Stats ComparisonTexas State vs Texas Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas StateTXST | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#12 | PPG | 30.5#41 |
| 29#95 | PA/G | 20.3#28 |
| 473.5#5 | YDS/G | 388.7#69 |
| 250.8#43 | PASS/G | 250.7#44 |
| 222.7#10 | RUSH/G | 138#90 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 46.0%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 39.2%#75 |
| 0.31#10 | OFF PPA | 0.18#57 |
| 0.16#71 | DEF PPA | 0.10#40 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.5%#93 |
| 41.1%#61 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.2%#43 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 72.1% |
| 1.35#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#13 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| -2.1 | SP+ | 22.8 |
| -4.3#84 | FPI | 26.9#2 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Texas State or Texas?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
