Texas State Bobcats Football

Texas State opens the 2026 season against Texas on Saturday, Sep 5 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

The Read

Texas State opens a 29.5-point underdog. Our model gives Texas State a 3% chance.

WIN PROBABILITY

TEX 97% TXST 3%

PROJECTED FINAL

Texas

45

Texas State

15

TXST win
3% One-score game
9%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (Elo) TEX

Home-field edge TEX

Market lean TEX

Model projection TEX

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Sim the game Texas State @ Texas

Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, TEX 0

@#5

Texas State @ Texas

Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 97% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →

@

UTSA @ Texas State

Sat, Sep 12 · 2:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTXST 57% to win

The CWSIM NOW →

@

North Texas @ Texas State

Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 AM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTXST 79% to win

USA NetSIM NOW →

UIW@

Incarnate Word @ Texas State

Sat, Sep 26 · 5:00 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTXST 96% to win

USA NetSIM NOW →

Standings

Full standings →

Place	TEAM	CONF	OVERALL
4	ORSTOregon StateORST	0–0	0–0
5	SDSUSan Diego StateSDSU	0–0	0–0
6	TXSTTexas StateTXST	0–0	0–0
7	USUUtah StateUSU	0–0	0–0
8	WSUWashington StateWSU	0–0	0–0

Rankings

All rankings →

Rank	AP TOP 25
1	OSUOhio StateOSU
2	OREOregonORE
3	UGAGeorgiaUGA
4	NDNotre DameND
–	TXSTTexas StateTXST

Rank	COACHES
1	OSUOhio StateOSU
2	OREOregonORE
3	UGAGeorgiaUGA
4	TEXTexasTEX
–	TXSTTexas StateTXST