GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDBuffaloBUF4–3·MAC
BUF radioBulls Sports Network
BALL radioCardinal Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Buffalo a 67% chance.
SeriesBall State leads 11–3 · Buffalo won the last meeting, 51–48 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BUF
Home-field edge BALL
Model projection BUF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Buffalo @ Ball State
Your sims:Sims: BALL 0, BUF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Ball State
Wat Bowling Green32–31 (OT)Lat Northwestern45–14Lvs Toledo39–24
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Buffalo vs Ball State Stats ComparisonBuffalo vs Ball State Stats Comparison
| BuffaloBUF | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.4#111 | PPG | 20.3#118 |
| 25.6#85 | PA/G | 37.9#135 |
| 324.3#120 | YDS/G | 326.1#118 |
| 159#128 | PASS/G | 190.9#108 |
| 165.3#58 | RUSH/G | 135.3#101 |
| 4.3#136 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1#118 |
| 36.8%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 30.7%#131 |
| 0.02#117 | OFF PPA | 0.07#98 |
| 0.09#79 | DEF PPA | 0.29#134 |
| 35.1%#131 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.2%#123 |
| 38.3%#46 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.1%#118 |
| 1.16#105 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#19 |
| 1360 | ELO | 1065 |
| −4#111 | TO MARGIN | −2#91 |
| -0.8% | RET PROD | 5.7% |
| -13.9 | SP+ | -25.2 |
| -12.9#114 | FPI | -21.1#132 |
| -14.6 | SRS | -15.4 |
THE VENUE
Scheumann StadiumLocationMuncie, IN
Capacity22,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation937 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Buffalo or Ball State?
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