GAME DAY
Week 4 · TBDUSF radioBulls Radio Network
BGSU radioFalcon Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Florida a 72% chance.
SeriesSouth Florida leads 1–0 · South Florida won the last meeting, 29–7 · 2002
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USF
Home-field edge BGSU
Model projection USF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Florida @ Bowling Green
Your sims:Sims: BGSU 0, USF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Bowling Green
Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)
Wat Massachusetts45–14Lvs Akron19–16Lat Eastern Michigan27–21Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Florida vs Bowling Green Stats ComparisonUSF vs BGSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South FloridaUSF | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 40.5#5 | PPG | 20.5#117 |
| 23.4#53 | PA/G | 24.2#63 |
| 487.8#3 | YDS/G | 306.8#125 |
| 275.6#18 | PASS/G | 151.2#126 |
| 212.2#13 | RUSH/G | 155.5#71 |
| 7#5 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| 46.4%#20 | 3RD DOWN | 36.7%#98 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.30#17 | OFF PPA | 0.03#129 |
| 0.08#30 | DEF PPA | 0.15#60 |
| 46.7%#22 | OFF SUCCESS | 35.9%#127 |
| 37.9%#27 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 1.30#38 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#68 |
| 12.6% | RET PROD | -6.2% |
| -1.7 | SP+ | -15.0 |
| -0.9#73 | FPI | -13.7#123 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doyt L. Perry StadiumLocationBowling Green, OH
Capacity24,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation676 ft
FAN NEWS
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