GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Louisiana opens a 10-point favorite. Our model gives Louisiana a 73% chance.
SeriesSouthern Miss leads 24–5 · Southern Miss won the last meeting, 22–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: USM 0, UL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Market 6 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $474 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Louisiana vs Southern Miss Stats ComparisonLouisiana vs USM Stats Comparison
| LouisianaUL | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| 30#65 | PPG | 24.2#93 |
| 19.3#35 | PA/G | 32.7#125 |
| 377.7#80 | YDS/G | 394.5#65 |
| 178.3#118 | PASS/G | 260.8#39 |
| 199.4#30 | RUSH/G | 133.7#105 |
| 5.7#82 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 41.9%#58 | 3RD DOWN | 32.9%#123 |
| 0.15#71 | OFF PPA | 0.03#111 |
| 44.0%#62 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.3%#81 |
| 41.2%#79 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.4%#108 |
| 91.9% | RET PROD | 90.2% |
| 1.16#107 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#84 |
| 1508 | ELO | 1183 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| -0.06#13 | DEF PPA | 0.18#115 |
| -2.3 | SP+ | -18.3 |
| -1.8#76 | FPI | -14.7#122 |
| 0.9 | SRS | -17.5 |
THE VENUE
M. M. Roberts StadiumFAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Louisiana or Southern Miss?
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