GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·IllinoisILL0–0·B1G
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Illinois a 70% chance.
SeriesIllinois leads 2–1 · Illinois won the last meeting, 45–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ILL
Home-field edge ILL
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Duke @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, DUKE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelILL 70%MarketILL 65%
Market 5 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $70 traded · as of Sep 1, 10:21 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Duke vs Illinois Stats ComparisonDuke vs Illinois Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 29.4#52 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 23.6#56 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 373.9#80 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 235.8#59 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 138.2#88 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 42.1%#43 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.21#39 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.5%#15 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.0%#121 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 10.4 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 6.3#39 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Duke or Illinois?
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