GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
LSU opens a 7.5-point favorite. Our model gives LSU a 71% chance.
SeriesLSU leads 33–23–1 · LSU won the last meeting, 48–18 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) LSU
Home-field edge AUB
Market lean LSU
Model projection LSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
LSU @ Auburn
Your sims:Sims: AUB 0, LSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelLSU 71%MarketLSU 72%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $76,852 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADLSU −7.5AUB +7.5
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINELSU −298AUB +240
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
LSU vs Auburn Stats ComparisonLSU vs Auburn Stats Comparison
| LSULSU | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4#7 | PPG | 26.8#84 |
| 15.9#17 | PA/G | 21.8#54 |
| 504#7 | YDS/G | 393.7#67 |
| 307.9#8 | PASS/G | 211.7#91 |
| 196.1#32 | RUSH/G | 182#45 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#86 |
| 53.3%#7 | 3RD DOWN | 45.6%#33 |
| 0.26#22 | OFF PPA | 0.10#90 |
| 51.9%#4 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.3%#91 |
| 34.0%#9 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.4%#66 |
| 21.2% | RET PROD | 14.4% |
| 1.18#96 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26#51 |
| 1913 | ELO | 1699 |
| 21.7 | SP+ | 11.0 |
| 23.0#8 | FPI | 13.4#21 |
| 24.8 | SRS | 10.5 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | +2#47 |
| -0.12#5 | DEF PPA | 0.02#43 |
THE VENUE
Jordan-Hare StadiumLocationAuburn, AL
Capacity87,451
SurfaceGrass
Opened1939
Elevation660 ft
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