GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 85% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 25–5 · Boise State won the last meeting, 25–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Utah State vs Boise State Stats ComparisonUtah State vs Boise State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Utah StateUSU | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9#35 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 28.7#90 | PA/G | 24.1#61 |
| 409.8#40 | YDS/G | 424.3#24 |
| 246.9#48 | PASS/G | 244.9#51 |
| 162.9#62 | RUSH/G | 179.4#38 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 34.5%#111 | 3RD DOWN | 45.8%#26 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.17#60 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.10#42 |
| 41.1%#83 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.9%#86 |
| 42.7%#90 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.3%#8 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.35#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#36 |
| -7.9 | SP+ | 5.1 |
| -6.7#92 | FPI | 4.0#50 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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