GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 56% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 17–10 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 30–7 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Boise State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, BOIS 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Boise State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonBoise State vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Boise StateBOIS | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 25.8#81 |
| 24.1#61 | PA/G | 18.8#16 |
| 424.3#24 | YDS/G | 354.1#94 |
| 244.9#51 | PASS/G | 183.4#112 |
| 179.4#38 | RUSH/G | 170.7#54 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 45.8%#26 | 3RD DOWN | 36.4%#100 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| 0.17#60 | OFF PPA | 0.10#103 |
| 0.10#42 | DEF PPA | 0.08#31 |
| 40.9%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.7%#105 |
| 35.3%#8 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.1%#31 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.30#36 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| 5.1 | SP+ | -1.4 |
| 4.0#50 | FPI | -2.5#77 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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