GAME DAY
Week 7 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San Diego State a 64% chance.
SeriesSan Diego State leads 19–13 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 23–0 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge SDSU
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ San Diego State
Your sims:Sims: SDSU 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs San Diego State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs SDSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 26.4#77 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 15.4#6 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 356#91 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 157.9#125 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 198.9#19 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 31.4%#130 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.2%#81 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#9 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 98.7% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18#106 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | -0.02#3 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | 0.7 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | 1.4#59 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Snapdragon StadiumLocationSan Diego, CA
Capacity35,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened2022
Elevation203 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Fresno State or San Diego State?
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