GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
San Diego State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives San Diego State a 51% chance.
SeriesSan Diego State leads 23–15 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 45–24 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
CSU win
49% One-score game
40% Cover SDSU −1.5
46%
49% One-score game
40% Cover SDSU −1.5
46%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) SDSU
Home-field edge CSU
Market lean SDSU
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
San Diego State @ Colorado State
Your sims:Sims: CSU 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
Wvs Fresno State26–23Lat Oregon State66–14Wvs Texas State31–29
Colorado State
Lat Texas State66–27Lvs Oregon State56–26Lat UTSA59–45
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelSDSU 51%MarketSDSU 51%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $14,298 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSDSU −1.5CSU +1.5
TOTALOver 63.5Under 63.5
MONEYLINESDSU −115CSU −105
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
San Diego State vs Colorado State Stats ComparisonSDSU vs CSU Stats Comparison
| San Diego StateSDSU | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.3#101 | PPG | 35.7#29 |
| 33.3#127 | PA/G | 43.2#138 |
| 292.9#133 | YDS/G | 444.2#36 |
| 148.4#132 | PASS/G | 273.7#26 |
| 144.4#87 | RUSH/G | 170.5#53 |
| 4.8#130 | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#23 |
| 29.3%#135 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#47 |
| 0.12#92 | DEF PPA | 0.29#134 |
| 34.5%#133 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.1%#59 |
| 47.7%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 53.1%#138 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 39.6% |
| 1.14#115 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.46#2 |
| 1261 | ELO | 1155 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | +8#6 |
| -0.09#135 | OFF PPA | 0.23#32 |
| -10.2 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| -8.8#100 | FPI | -12.6#113 |
| -5.7 | SRS | -7.2 |
THE VENUE
Canvas StadiumLocationFort Collins, CO
Capacity36,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2017
Elevation5,014 ft
FAN NEWS
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