GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San Diego State a 69% chance.
SeriesSan Diego State leads 23–15 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 45–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge CSU
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Colorado State
Your sims:Sims: CSU 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Colorado State
Colorado State2025: 2–10 (1–7 MWC)
Lvs Air Force42–21Lat Boise State49–21Lat New Mexico20–17Colorado State2025: 2–10 (1–7 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Stats ComparisonSDSU vs CSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| San Diego StateSDSU | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4#77 | PPG | 18.5#124 |
| 15.4#6 | PA/G | 30.8#113 |
| 356#91 | YDS/G | 324.2#117 |
| 157.9#125 | PASS/G | 215.9#86 |
| 198.9#19 | RUSH/G | 108.2#120 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1#111 |
| 31.4%#130 | 3RD DOWN | 32.9%#122 |
| 0.12#95 | OFF PPA | 0.12#94 |
| 41.2%#81 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.8%#103 |
| 35.4%#9 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.9%#119 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 39.6% |
| 1.18#106 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#86 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −4#98 |
| -0.02#3 | DEF PPA | 0.24#118 |
| 0.7 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| 1.4#59 | FPI | -12.4#118 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Canvas StadiumLocationFort Collins, CO
Capacity36,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2017
Elevation5,014 ft
FAN NEWS
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