GAME DAY
Week 9 · TBDCFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 68% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 9–6 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 36–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Oregon State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, ORST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Oregon State
Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)
Lat Washington State32–8Lat Tulsa31–14Lvs Sam Houston21–17Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Oregon State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonOregon State vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Oregon StateORST | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2#125 | PPG | 25.8#81 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 18.8#16 |
| 352.7#95 | YDS/G | 354.1#94 |
| 225.4#66 | PASS/G | 183.4#112 |
| 127.2#103 | RUSH/G | 170.7#54 |
| 5.1#111 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 35.9%#102 | 3RD DOWN | 36.4%#100 |
| 0.06#120 | OFF PPA | 0.10#103 |
| 0.18#87 | DEF PPA | 0.08#31 |
| 42.4%#67 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.7%#105 |
| 38.8%#38 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.1%#31 |
| 57.9% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.07#135 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| -5.6 | SP+ | -1.4 |
| -8.1#98 | FPI | -2.5#77 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Oregon State or Fresno State?
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