GAME DAY
Week 9 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 51% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 9–6 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 36–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ORST
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Oregon State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, ORST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Oregon State
Wvs Washington State48–30Wvs San Diego State66–14Wat Colorado State56–26
Fresno State
Lat San Diego State26–23Lvs Boise State38–31Wat Washington State26–6
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelORST 49%MarketORST 69%
Market 20 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $335 traded · as of Oct 20, 9:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Oregon State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonOregon State vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
| Oregon StateORST | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 42.7#4 | PPG | 27.6#79 |
| 23.1#65 | PA/G | 20.9#43 |
| 509.4#6 | YDS/G | 352.6#102 |
| 371.3#1 | PASS/G | 212.1#90 |
| 138.1#97 | RUSH/G | 140.4#94 |
| 7.3#6 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 46.5%#27 | 3RD DOWN | 36.1%#104 |
| +5#15 | TO MARGIN | +8#6 |
| 0.33#9 | OFF PPA | 0.11#85 |
| 0.08#79 | DEF PPA | 0.04#52 |
| 50.3%#11 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.0%#104 |
| 40.3%#63 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#87 |
| 57.9% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.30#32 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#39 |
| 1611 | ELO | 1628 |
| 7.1 | SP+ | 3.7 |
| 6.0#49 | FPI | -0.7#73 |
| 11.2 | SRS | -0.8 |
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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