GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 70% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 19–14–1 · Utah State won the last meeting, 28–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge USU
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ Utah State
Your sims:Sims: USU 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Lat San Diego State26–23Lvs Boise State38–31Wat Washington State26–6
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs Utah State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs Utah State Stats Comparison
| Fresno StateFRES | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.6#79 | PPG | 14.5#136 |
| 20.9#43 | PA/G | 23.5#66 |
| 352.6#102 | YDS/G | 310#129 |
| 212.1#90 | PASS/G | 189.8#109 |
| 140.4#94 | RUSH/G | 120.2#116 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 5#121 |
| 36.1%#104 | 3RD DOWN | 37.5%#85 |
| 0.04#52 | DEF PPA | 0.05#57 |
| 40.0%#104 | OFF SUCCESS | 34.5%#133 |
| 41.9%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.3%#53 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 65.2% |
| 1.28#39 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.39#9 |
| 1628 | ELO | 1362 |
| +8#6 | TO MARGIN | −5#121 |
| 0.11#85 | OFF PPA | -0.08#133 |
| 3.4 | SP+ | -9.0 |
| -0.7#73 | FPI | -7.6#96 |
| -0.8 | SRS | -10.7 |
THE VENUE
Maverik StadiumLocationLogan, UT
Capacity25,513
SurfaceTurf
Opened1968
Elevation4,685 ft
FAN NEWS
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