GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 57% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 19–14–1 · Utah State won the last meeting, 28–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge USU
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ Utah State
Your sims:Sims: USU 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs Utah State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs Utah State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 30.9#35 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 28.7#90 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 409.8#40 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 246.9#48 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 162.9#62 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3#24 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 34.5%#111 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.20#41 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.1%#83 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.7%#90 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 65.2% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#17 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | -7.9 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | -6.7#92 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Maverik StadiumLocationLogan, UT
Capacity25,513
SurfaceTurf
Opened1968
Elevation4,685 ft
FAN NEWS
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