GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San Diego State a 78% chance.
SeriesSan Diego State leads 13–5 · Utah State won the last meeting, 41–20 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge SDSU
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ San Diego State
Your sims:Sims: SDSU 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Utah State vs San Diego State Stats ComparisonUtah State vs SDSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Utah StateUSU | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9#35 | PPG | 26.4#77 |
| 28.7#90 | PA/G | 15.4#6 |
| 409.8#40 | YDS/G | 356#91 |
| 246.9#48 | PASS/G | 157.9#125 |
| 162.9#62 | RUSH/G | 198.9#19 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 34.5%#111 | 3RD DOWN | 31.4%#130 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 41.1%#83 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.2%#81 |
| 42.7%#90 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#9 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 98.7% |
| 1.35#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18#106 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | -0.02#3 |
| -7.9 | SP+ | 0.7 |
| -6.7#92 | FPI | 1.4#59 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Snapdragon StadiumLocationSan Diego, CA
Capacity35,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened2022
Elevation203 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 11 GAMES
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