GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Oregon State a 65% chance.
SeriesOregon State leads 2–1 · Utah State won the last meeting, 24–13 · 2021
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ORST
Home-field edge ORST
Model projection ORST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ Oregon State
Your sims:Sims: ORST 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Oregon State
Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)
Lat Washington State32–8Lat Tulsa31–14Lvs Sam Houston21–17Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Utah State vs Oregon State Stats ComparisonUtah State vs Oregon State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Utah StateUSU | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9#35 | PPG | 18.2#125 |
| 28.7#90 | PA/G | 29.4#98 |
| 409.8#40 | YDS/G | 352.7#95 |
| 246.9#48 | PASS/G | 225.4#66 |
| 162.9#62 | RUSH/G | 127.2#103 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1#111 |
| 34.5%#111 | 3RD DOWN | 35.9%#102 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.06#120 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.18#87 |
| 41.1%#83 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.4%#67 |
| 42.7%#90 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.8%#38 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 57.9% |
| 1.35#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.07#135 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −10#123 |
| -7.9 | SP+ | -5.6 |
| -6.7#92 | FPI | -8.1#98 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Reser StadiumLocationCorvallis, OR
Capacity43,363
SurfaceTurf
Opened1953
Elevation220 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
