GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 70% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 6–5 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 17–7 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
San Diego State vs Boise State Stats ComparisonSDSU vs Boise State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| San Diego StateSDSU | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4#77 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 15.4#6 | PA/G | 24.1#61 |
| 356#91 | YDS/G | 424.3#24 |
| 157.9#125 | PASS/G | 244.9#51 |
| 198.9#19 | RUSH/G | 179.4#38 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 31.4%#130 | 3RD DOWN | 45.8%#26 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.12#95 | OFF PPA | 0.17#60 |
| 41.2%#81 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.9%#86 |
| 35.4%#9 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.3%#8 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.18#106 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#36 |
| 0.7 | SP+ | 5.1 |
| 1.4#59 | FPI | 4.0#50 |
| -0.02#3 | DEF PPA | 0.10#42 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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