GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 92% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 6–5 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 17–7 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
Wvs Fresno State26–23Lat Oregon State66–14Wvs Texas State31–29
Boise State
Wat Fresno State38–31Wvs Utah State37–18Wat Western Michigan32–7
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
San Diego State vs Boise State Stats ComparisonSDSU vs Boise State Stats Comparison
| San Diego StateSDSU | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.3#101 | PPG | 35#37 |
| 33.3#127 | PA/G | 22.3#58 |
| 292.9#133 | YDS/G | 450.5#27 |
| 148.4#132 | PASS/G | 216#85 |
| 144.4#87 | RUSH/G | 234.5#9 |
| 4.8#130 | YDS/PLAY | 6.4#37 |
| 29.3%#135 | 3RD DOWN | 50.0%#17 |
| 0.12#91 | DEF PPA | 0.06#64 |
| 34.5%#133 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.8%#20 |
| 47.7%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.0%#35 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.14#114 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#75 |
| 1261 | ELO | 1691 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -0.09#135 | OFF PPA | 0.32#11 |
| -10.2 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| -8.8#100 | FPI | 11.4#30 |
| -5.7 | SRS | 11.9 |
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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