GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Boise State opens a 13.5-point favorite. Our model gives Boise State a 81% chance.
SeriesWashington State leads 5–2 · Boise State won the last meeting, 45–24 · 2024
19% One-score game
28% Cover BOIS −13.5
52%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: WSU 0, BOIS 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $6,643 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Boise State vs Washington State Stats ComparisonBoise State vs WSU Stats Comparison
| Boise StateBOIS | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35#37 | PPG | 20.1#120 |
| 22.3#58 | PA/G | 27.1#101 |
| 450.5#27 | YDS/G | 307.6#131 |
| 216#85 | PASS/G | 177.6#120 |
| 234.5#9 | RUSH/G | 130#110 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#130 |
| 50.0%#17 | 3RD DOWN | 29.5%#134 |
| 0.06#64 | DEF PPA | 0.07#69 |
| 48.8%#20 | OFF SUCCESS | 34.4%#135 |
| 37.0%#34 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.1%#61 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 91.3% |
| 1.22#75 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#44 |
| 1691 | ELO | 1446 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | −7#131 |
| 0.32#11 | OFF PPA | -0.04#129 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | -11.1 |
| 11.4#30 | FPI | -9.0#102 |
| 11.9 | SRS | -9.3 |
THE VENUE
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